2012-2013 NBA Division Preview: Southwest Division

The Southwest Division has seen it’s fair share of change and roster turnover over the past 12 months. Some teams have seen themselves go from having championship aspirations (Dallas) to potentially struggling for a playoff position. Other teams, such as the Spurs, have masterfully maintained a relevance and dominance, but also transitioned the offensive focal point along the way. Duncan remains ever present, but Tony Parker is now the motor that drives that vehicle.

Many NBA fans were left scratching their heads in wonder and suspense at some of the moves and decisions made by Houston Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey. We’ll get into more on them shortly, but their increased level of activity has become more of the norm within the division. The Dallas Mavericks were another team that swung an aggressive, yet questionable bat during free agency. Some would suggest they (Dallas) struck out like Houston (prior to Harden deal), while Mark Cuban would reassure his uneasy fan-base of not landing Deron Williams being a positive thing in the long run.

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The New Orleans Hornets was another franchise on the major change side of things. In walked new owner Tom Benson (after a lengthy search by the league), and along comes a pat on the back in the form of a potential franchise-altering player in Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, and an accompanying guard in Duke’s Austin Rivers. I’m sure head coach Monty Williams wasn’t disappointed by the free agent addition of long-range specialist Ryan Anderson, either.

The division hasn’t been won by a team other than San Antonio since Dallas finished five games ahead of the Spurs during the 2009-2010 season. With that said, Dallas may find it difficult to merely stay ahead of up-and-coming teams (Western Conference) like Utah and and Minnesota in the playoff picture. Individual team breakdowns to follow, but here are my division standing predictions:

2012-2013 Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs (52-55 wins)
2. Memphis Grizzlies (51-53 wins)
3. Dallas Mavericks (45-47 wins)
4. Houston Rockets (38-41 wins)
5. New Orleans Hornets (31-33 wins)

Next Page: San Antonio Spurs

1. San Antonio Spurs – 50-16 (2011-2012)

As mentioned, even though Tim Duncan remains the ‘rock’ of the franchise, Tony Parker’s MVP-like season last year made it officially his team. Parker ascended into the elite point guard discussion for large portions of 2012. Much like I questioned Mike Conley, I wonder if Parker has what it takes to maintain that level of effectiveness from here on out? Parker is far from alone, as Manu Ginobili is still an above average SG and secondary playmaker.

Kawhi Leonard continues to develop, and Boris Diaw now looks like a professional athlete again. I found it interesting when Popovich decided to use Leonard in a point-forward capacity, but not surprising. Popovich is a master at doing more with less, and you can never have enough versatile multifaceted forwards. The Spurs were sure to re-sign Stephen Jackson to round out their front court.

De Colo, a rookie guard out of France, has drawn more comparisons to a young Ginobili than his own countryman, Parker. Whether being mentioned in the same breath as Ginobili is truly warranted, the Spurs seem very excited to see where this young man’s game can go.

The Spurs are likely to do what they normally do, which is methodically work throughout the regular season. Winning three of four games per week has become the normal occurrence in San Antonio. You’re excused if you’re one of the many NBA fans that figured the Spurs were beyond their proverbial “championship window”, as I was one of those individuals as well. Trouble is (for the rest of the league), they don’t seem to age. General manager R.C. Buford has been providing the perfect players for the Spurs system for years, and Popovich continues to maintain a contender. Other teams may have made the splashy moves in the off-season, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Spurs right there competing for a top three seed in the talented and stacked Western Conference.

Key Additions: Nano de Colo, Josh Powell
Key Departure: Eddy Curry (Kind of…)

Next Page: Memphis Grizzlies

2. Memphis Grizzlies – 41-25 (2011-2012)

The Grizzlies are now that team just beneath the core group that worries you, because at any given moment you worry they will put it completely together. Quietly, while folks laughed and prodded about the Pau Gasol deal, GM Chris Wallace was building one of the more complete and competitive rosters without hitting the jackpot in the lottery or acquiring a big name free agent.

Only trouble I have with them is the redundancy in offensive styles between forwards Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph. Obviously, I’m not saying their skill set is identical. The ball-stopping isolation each can be prone to do is the issue. The team bust onto the scenes during the 2010-2011 postseason when they shocked the top seeded San Antonio Spurs without the services of an injured Rudy Gay, and with the offense run primarily through Randolph.

Can Mike Conley take the next step, and truly establish himself as a leader? If you’re going to have two ball-dominant figures along your front line, you must have a point guard strong enough to maximize the abilities of each player without either of them needing to hold on to the ball. The Knicks were in a similar circumstance, which is why they are hoping the experience of a guy like Jason Kidd can get their offense in order. Can Conley be that guy in Memphis?

Key Additions: Tony Wroten
Key Departures: OJ Mayo, Gilbert Arenas

Next Page: Dallas Mavericks

3. Dallas Mavericks – 36-30 (2011-2012)

For as much grief as can be given to the Mavericks for missing out on both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, Mark Cuban found a way to at least save face with the secondary acquisitions he was able to make. While I’m far from agreeing with his post-summer assessment that he’s better off not signing Deron Williams and acquiring Dwight Howard, I’m not willing to completely write the Mavericks off as a doom and gloom case. Trouble is, they could have used a healthy Dirk Nowitzki to return after what ended as an up and down season in 2011-12.

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Nowitzki is far from healthy, as the 7-foot sharpshooting PF is just returning to riding an exercise bike following a recent knee procedure. Initial reports had a return date around 4.5 weeks into the season. Now, more optimistic estimates have Nowitzki available somewhere between the second and third weeks. The additions of Brand and Kaman should somewhat remedy the absence in the interim, but they are going to need a healthy and strong return from their face of the franchise in order to remain relevant in the playoff picture out West.

Mayo and Collison are good pick-ups. Regardless of Mayo’s defensive limitations and propensity to over-dribble at times, I’d like to think Rick Carlisle will be able to find a way to maximize his talents with time. Collison, while not Jason Kidd in terms of the experience, is more than serviceable and looking to improve at just 25-years-old. Vince Carter and Shawn Marion both have enough in the tank to provide a veteran presence.

Key Additions: OJ Mayo, Darren Collison, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman
Key Departures: Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom

Next Page: Houston Rockets

4. Houston Rockets

One can almost excuse the Rockets for stumbling out of the blocks last season (3-7 over their first 10 games), as they were one of the nameless victims of the botched multi-team Chris Paul deal. Under the leadership of (then) new head coach Kevin McHale, the Rockets had aspirations of pairing Pau Gasol and Nene in their front court. We all know how things went with that deal, and the Rockets were left in the cold. Much like the other GMs, Daryl Morey was understandably scrambling to place a ‘Plan B’ in motion when he signed Samuel Dalembert (Dec 26, 2011) instead.

In the process of trying to procure the services of Dwight Howard from Orlando, Morey puzzled many with his decision to utilize the amnesty provision on an effective player like PF Luis Scola, which allowed him to go to another team within the conference (Phoenix Suns) that could end up battling for an eighth seed in the West if Houston overachieves. Not to mention, the questionable decisions to allow PG Goran Dragic to do the very same thing (via free agency), all while you traded oft-injured starting PG Kyle Lowry to the Raptors. After all that, Morey seemed to simply be grasping at straws by sinking $50M over the next three years into Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin. Peculiar moves, to say the least.

At the last hour, Morey was able to swing a deal for OKC’s combo-guard James Harden. By giving up multiple draft picks, Jeremy Lamb, and Kevin Martin, Houston certainly took a gamble. Especially if they are unable to convince Harden to re-sign at the end of the year. Time will tell if the moves end up panning out, but it seems as though Morey could use a bit of positivity to go his way in terms of recent deals. I’m not predicting a total slide off the map for Houston, as Harden is currently a top 25 player with the potential to improve. Does Morey have a post player in mind to partner with Harden for the future?

Key Additions: Terrence Jones, Royce White, Gary Forbes, Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, James Harden
Key Departures: Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Samuel Dalembert, Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin

Next Page: New Orleans Hornets

5. New Orleans Hornets

As mentioned earlier, the New Orleans Hornets certainly enjoyed a charmed off-season. Rarely, do you get the chance to acquire one potentially franchise-altering player, let alone two. While they have what is considered the closest thing to as sure of a thing in rookie (first overall pick of the 2012-13 NBA Draft) PF/C Anthony Davis, let us not forget how talented and skilled Austin Rivers could end up being. Rivers will have to overcome physical uncertainties vs. the larger/stronger guards, but can work toward strengthening and adjusting to the NBA style. The question is, if healthy, does he pan out to be in the mold of an offensively gifted but limited player such as OJ Mayo, or does he excel to the height of a pre-knee injury Brandon Roy?

In Ant Davis, no such wondering/worrying will be the case. I hate drawing premature comparisons, but I would be remiss to not mention Davis’ incredible similarity to a young Tim Duncan, potentially with a hybrid mix of Kevin Garnett’s young athleticism. Point is, Davis (unibrow and all) is my selection for the NBA’s next big thing. I will openly acknowledge I expect him to win Rookie of the Year. In my humble opinion, Davis possesses those rare intangibles, skill set, and mindset to be a true impact player in this league for years to come.

Free agent pick up Ryan Anderson has improved in scoring and efficiency each of the last four preseason games, and looks to be settling into his new leadership role with this young roster. If he and a healthy Eric Gordon can lead the way, I think the rookie additions will catch their strides sometime around January. While I could see them threatening with a second-half playoff push, I don’t think they’ll have quite enough to make it this year. Be alert and very much aware of their progress over the next couple seasons.

Key Additions: Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers, Ryan Anderson, Robin Lopez, Hakeem Warrick
Key Departures: Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor, Brad Miller