News of an NBA lock out for fans is disheartening but usually the details of the quarrels between the owners and players have little effect on the fans themselves. A fan isn’t interested in the players’ level of health care or their pension plan; nor is he concerned about the owners’ bottom line. The fan base merely wants to watch their favorite team play the game that they love and be amazed by the feats and abilities of the stars.
The NBA has some worrisome times upcoming as the players and owners’ CBA (collective bargaining agreement) is set to expire at season’s end and unless the two sides make some dramatic concessions to their demands a lock out prior to the start of the 2011-2012 season is inevitable.
There are many points of contention between both sides and most have little to do with Joe Schmoe NBA fan, except one. The one idea being talked about on the owners’ side and one that the players’ union would undoubtedly be completely against is the implementation of a hard salary cap.
Unlike the NFL and NHL, the NBA uses a soft salary cap which allows teams to go over the limit for team salaries with numerous exceptions. A good example of the flexibility of a soft cap is the Lakers who currently have a payroll of 90+ million dollars despite the league salary cap limit being set at 58 million. The Lakers were able to get over the salary cap with exceptions that allow them to sign their own players and free agents without restrictions of the cap. In a Hard Cap world, there would be few exceptions and a team must keep their salaries below the set limit.
If a hard cap is shoved down the players’ throat and they relent by accepting the terms, what does that mean for the prospects of the Laker organization which has an incredible advantage by having an owner not afraid to spend the money necessary to form a championship team?
What happens to the Lakers current squad if a hard cap is set effective immediately and they need to get under the threshold before the start of next season?
We look at some of the devastating effects of a hard cap on both the current Laker squad and the future of the organization.
Next: Dismantling of the current Laker squad?
In the end, the owners won out and the salary cap was immediately implemented. This meant that the teams that had payrolls over the newly established salary cap had to work on getting their payrolls under that the limit. Rules were set in place to make the transition seamless but it still resulted in players being bought out or cut from teams that had expensive payrolls.
What if immediate implementation of a hard cap is implemented in the NBA? This would mean that teams would have to renegotiate the current player contracts or outright cut players to get under the cap just like the NHL.
The Lakers currently have the highest team payroll at $91 million dollars which is well above the $58 million dollar salary cap set by the NBA for total team salaries. The Lakers would exceed the salary threshold with the salaries of Kobe, Gasol and Bynum alone.
In order for the Lakers to comply with the terms of the hard cap they will need to attempt to renegotiate the terms of the current players contracts, but with them needing to shed $33 million in salaries they will also lose important players off the roster. You can conceivably see guys like Bynum, Odom, Barnes, Shannon Brown, Fisher and Steve Blake all be cut or bought out and be replaced with less expensive options like rookies or well aged veterans.
Those players that are cut from the Laker roster will then have to find new homes on other teams; with the scarcity of teams with money available they will have to consider teams in cities they might not have initially considered under the previous terms.
Lamar Odom might find himself in Milwaukee.
Andrew Bynum might have to consider Cleveland.
Fisher might have to end his career in Oklahoma City.
In this scenario, the Lakers’ depth has been ravaged and the talent has been evenly dispersed throughout the league creating an NFL type parity league wide.
At this point the Lakers are still championship material with Kobe and Gasol on the roster but their advantages are slight and competition throughout the league has been raised significantly.
A championship or even making the playoffs are no longer a foregone conclusion for the Lakers, but rather become an arguably point of contention.
Next: Long term effects
In addition, the Lakers have an owner that has shown willingness to open his pocket book to acquire the necessary talent to field a championship contending team.
Just this past season the Lakers extended Kobe Bryant’s contract and resigned Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown and Lamar Odom to lucrative deals despite being over the cap by utilizing the Bird Rights exception which allows teams over the cap to resign their own players. Under a hard cap however, no longer will Dr. Buss be able to resign his own free agents to lucrative contracts with no regard for the salary cap rules as the current CBA allows.
Dr. Buss will also not be able to pick up a free agent with a yearly salary exception, such as Matt Barnes and Steve Blake this past year, to fill holes of the team if the Laker’s team salary is at the limit. Instead, he will have to stand pat or make trades in an attempt to improve the team.
Talent evaluation and the ability to mesh the correct mix of players together on a roster will move to the forefront as the most important traits of an organization.
This might not be the Lakers’ strong point.
The acquisition of Vladimir Radmanovic and long term contract of Luke Walton bring to question some of the personal decisions that have been made over the years by the Laker brass.
These moves did not hinder the Lakers’ championship chances because the Lakers compiled enough talent throughout the roster to make up for any deficiencies in those few personal decisions that went astray.
In a hard cap world the Lakers won’t have a surplus of talent or ability to absorb a bad contract and just make up for it with another free agent signing the following year because there just wont be any room in their budget.
A team that misses on a high draft pick or decides to provide a lucrative contract to a free agent who doesn’t pan out will cripple a franchise and set them back for years to come; the Lakers will be no exception.
The resulting effect will be a more even distribution of talent around the league creating an equal opportunity league. The days of dynasties like the Lakers would likely be over and the uprising of small markets like Milwaukee and Cleveland could soon rise to the elite of the NBA.
An NBA hard cap will officially put an end to those advantages enjoyed by the Lakers all these decades and place them on a level playing field with the rest of the NBA teams.
Next: Realistic picture or doomsday outlook?
The Owners side has thrown around words and ideas around like contraction, franchise player tag, elimination of guaranteed contracts and the already discussed hard salary cap.
Players, such as Kobe Bryant, have talked about playing overseas if a CBA is not reached by next season.
While the scenarios that I have painted are worse case, they are still real possibilities.
This is a reason that there should be a sense of urgency with both Laker players and fans as this could be the last year that this squad can remain intact and compete for a championship.
It can be the end of the advantages that the Lakers have with their desirable location and great ownership.
Taking at least one positive look at the prospects of a hard cap, the NFL is a perfect example of how a great run organization will find a way to remain on top despite constrictive salary cap rules that promote parity. In the last 10 years the Pittsburg Steelers, New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts combined for 6 Super Bowl championships and 9 appearances.
The Lakers’ organization has shown to have the same type of dedication to winning and basketball acumen to instill confidence in the Laker fan base as it relates to their future. You only need to look up at the rafters and see the 16 championship banners as proof of the Lakers’ resolve throughout their illustrious history.