I may be optimistic but I promise I’m not delusional. I’m not going to predict a Cinderella season where the Lakers take the title. Would I like to see that? Yes. Can I advocate that with good conscience? No. The Lakers will be a bottom seed in the playoffs, and may just make the cut by the skin of their teeth due to an unbelievably stacked Western Conference, but they will make it and these are the teams they are going to have to fight to do it;
Houston Rockets
The Rockets covet the number eight spot in the West currently. They are second in points per game coupled with worst defense in the NBA. Translation: it can only be up from here for them. As their defense improves, so will their record. This giving up about as many points as they score can’t keep up. They will figure it out sooner or later. They have the makings of a great team, Jeremy Lin, while maybe not the ‘Linsane’ player we all hyped him up to be, yes, myself included, is still proving a pretty legit reputation as a point guard. He adds solid assists, averaging six a game, with 5.89 of them going to James Harden (okay that was made up).
That brings me to the fact this team is led by Harden who has taken the reins and given his track record coming off the bench and winning Sixth Man of the Year in Oklahoma City, has a shorter learning curve than most. Statistically, he is only behind Kobe Bryant for best shooting guard in the league as well as making the All-Star reserve team, averaging 25.9 points a game. Center Omer Asik continues to develop. He was a solid steal from the Chicago Bulls, averaging 11 rebounds a game, which is nearly double his previous career average. He is throwing in about 10 points a game as well with a staggering 61.5 percent from the field in his past four games which should he keep up, would put him behind only Tyson Chandler whose season average is .674.
However, Asik has an only slighter better free throw percentage than Dwight Howard, so there’s that. As these guys get more cohesive the Rockets could go from on the cusp to playoff powerhouse come April- this all depending, like the Lakers, on their defensive development. The Rockets killed, and I mean killed the New York Knicks back in November behind 14 rebounds from Asik and nine assists from Harden with a final score of 131-103. They had an explosive surge of offense with 31 points from Chandler Parsons, who may just be the most under-rated and off-the-radar player in the NBA. 103 points is a lot to give up in one game though.
You can’t think the Rockets can put up 131 on a regular basis. Glimpses of defense have been seen as they held the Detroit Pistons to 82, the least amount of points they have allowed this season. However, it was a low scoring game period with a score of 96-82 and probably has something to do with the fact the Pistons just aren’t that good. The last half of February and early March will bring trouble with nine of 12 games being on the road during that stretch. I pray that’s when they fall behind and relinquish their hold on the number eight spot.
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Dallas Mavericks
They are 19-25 and in their own downward spiral with Dirk Nowitzki not knowing which way is up. They are the Lakers most direct competition, holding the same record. With equally pompous a-holes of owners that may have let their stubbornness ruin their respective teams seasons (I’m talking about Mark Cuban and Jim Buss, not Dr. Jerry of course) then again even if that’s the case they would be too stubborn to admit it. That’s as far as I’ll go. That’s a whole different topic. O.J. Mayo is playing only slightly better than he did with the Memphis Grizzlies, due to slightly increased minutes. It’s not like the Grizz care, they are sitting comfortably in the number four spot behind the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and LA Clippers.
Between the decreased minutes/production of Nowitzki and Cuban blowing up every social medium he can think of to give Dirk a kick in the pants I would be willing to bet the Mavs are probably worse off than our purple and gold. They are middle of the pack in every way, except again, for defense. They rank 27th in points allowed with 102.9 and only 10th in points per game with 100.2. I’m no mathematician but if you give up 103 points in a game but only score 100 I believe that results in a loss. As miserably average as this team is they manage to stay on par with the Lakers, which is why they make this list.
Their record up until this point has made zero sense other than the fact they have lost to the Spurs every time they’ve played them. They won against Grizzlies, won at the Rockets, but lost to the Pistons and Charlotte Bobcats. Well guess what? The Spurs aren’t going away, which I’m hoping will contribute to their demise. They are home virtually the whole month of February, only major road challenges left are at Memphis, at San Antonio, and at Oklahoma City. But realistically, barring a complete meltdown you can bet they are unfortunately going to hover around that eighth spot in the Western Conference.
Next Page: Portland, Houston & More
Portland Trail Blazers
Two words: Damian Lillard. He is the X-factor on this squad. His rookie year out of Weber State he has absolutely shattered expectations. He is the highest picked player to ever come out of Weber State and has easily assimilated to be the point guard the Blazers need. Given his age he is only going to develop more. Franchise player anyone? But wait- then there’s All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. This team is showing flashes of actual goodness. They are hovering middle of the pack with a record of exactly .500, which explains their under-the-radar status. They handled the LA Clippers sans Chris Paul in the Rose Garden but weren’t able to get the job done at Staples Center on Sunday.
Then, last night, a buzzer beater from LaMarcus Aldridge finished off the Dallas Mavericks. Even more shockingly they won against the Miami Heat to put them up to their best record of the season at 20-15 at the time. That must have triggered some false confidence as they went on a 6-game skid losing to Cleveland, Milwaukee and Washington DC at home. They are 7-13 on the road, which doesn’t bode well considering they are on the road for almost the entire month of February. Hopefully the skid can continue to knock them out of contention to take the Lakers’ eighth seed.
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Utah Jazz
I can only hope that the Lakers route of the Jazz then subsequent victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder means some parallel universe is kicking in and the Lakers and Jazz are about to trade places. Jazz are 24-20 on the season. They are a great example of a team that distributes well. They rank seventh in the league in assists with point guard Mo Williams. They have a top five center in Al Jefferson averaging 17 points a game, which makes them the top team for efficiency at the center position. They have the fourth best bench in the league averaging 37 pts per game. However, they are 8-17 on the road. They have won four of their last five, losing only to the Lakers at Staples.
They are just six of 15 against playoff teams. I’m basically just hoping their luck runs out and they take a severe fall from grace. A girl can dream right? The only true road tests the Jazz have to deal with the rest of the season are the San Antonio Spurs, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the LA Clippers. Yes, the three best teams in the league but even if they go 0-3 in those contests it doesn’t seem that will be enough to total their playoff hopes. They have a couple Eastern Conference challenges in the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets. But honestly, their schedule doesn’t look all that bad. Realistically I see them nestled in the lower seeds of the playoffs and not going anywhere.
Recap
Let me just point out we aren’t even having this discussion about the Lakers if they are in the Eastern Conference. The lopsidedness between the two conferences is just stupid. The Philadelphia 76ers are on the cusp with a 18-25 record a.k.a. worse than the Lakers’ 19-25. It seems Lakers have finally figured it out though and gained some sort of identity which includes Kobe distributing more and posting up more and scoring… less? Pau Gasol made a huge impact on Sunday coming off the bench against the Thunder. The Lakers are the third best rebounding team in the league, due largely in part to Dwight Howard averaging 12.1 rebounds a game, giving them a ton of second chance opportunities.
Steve Nash is nearly up to his career average 8.6 assists per game with 8.3 this season, though his point totals are suffering a bit. With Kobe’s help in the post and the Lakers working from the inside out it seems they are finally on their way to putting together something that resembles a season. Plus that Dwight Howard/Pau Gasol hug just warmed my heart after Sunday’s game against OKC. Kobe was actually smiling in the post-game presser and you could see visible signs of relief in D’Antoni’s infamous facial expressions.
Kobe is still best shooting guard in the league. Should the Lakers make the playoffs a severe MVP case could ensue for Kobe and all will be right with the world. Until then enjoy the upside of this roller coaster year.