Kobe’s Projected Timeline for Reaching the All-Time Scoring Record

When Kobe moved passed Oscar Robertson for 9^th place on the all time scoring list this past Friday night against the New Orleans Hornets, he entered a very elite class of scoring prowess. Prior to the start of Tuesday’s game against the Cleveland Cavs, Kobe’s point total stood at 26,747 and still had 43 games to play this season. As it is, Kobe has already surpassed legendary NBA scorers like Larry Bird, Elgin Baylor and Jerry West. There are a few more NBA Hall of Famers that can see Kobe coming up quick in their rear view mirrors and who will inevitably be passed up this season on the scoring list.

I thought it would be fun to project when Kobe will pass those ahead of him on the scoring list and see how much of a journey he still has left to catch Kareem for the top spot. Barring injury, Kobe will reach a scoring milestone three more times this season.

Next: The Dream, Elvin and Moses

Going by Kobe’s current scoring average of 25.3, Kobe should surpass #8 on the scoring list, Hakeem the Dream, January 25^th when the Lakers host the Utah Jazz. Ironically, It was Hakeem that spent time with Kobe, helping him with his post up game prior to the start of the 2009-2010 season; so he would have actually contributed to Kobe passing him up on the all time scoring list.

Continuing with Kobe’s projected climb, he should supplant one of the members of the 50 greatest NBA players, Elvin Hayes, for the #7^th spot on February 27^th at Oklahoma City against the Thunder. It would be meaningful to reach this milestone in front of another player that will likely make his own run at the scoring record, Kevin Durant.

Moses Malone is next on the list at # 6 and Kobe is projected to pass him when the Lakers play one of Moses many former teams, the Atlanta Hawks on March 8^th at Phillips Arena. Moses Malone was a three time NBA MVP, a member of the NBA 50 greatest players. He is probably best known for his time with the Philadelphia 76ers where he won his only NBA championship along side Dr. J and Maurice Cheeks.

The 2010-2011 season will be a historic season of note for Kobe as he will have surpassed 6 players on the all time scoring list landing him at #6 all time. He now looks up to only 5 players but catching them will be an arduous task.

Next: The Diesel and the Top 5

Next in line for Kobe is long time nemesis and one time teammate, Shaquille O Neal. The problem with Shaq is that he continues to play and add to his total, albeit at one-third of the pace of Kobe. Assuming that Kobe doesn’t have that much of a drop off in production, and Shaq doesn’t find the fountain of youth and put up young Shaq like numbers, Kobe should pass up Shaq for 5^th place sometime in the 2012-2013 season when Kobe will be a mature 34 years old.

The good thing about the next four on the list is that unlike Shaq, are retired and no longer adding to their totals. The bad thing is that they are thousands of points ahead of Kobe’s current point total.

In order to project Kobe’s production over the next few years I had to account for his natural decline with age and needed to find a comparable player to Kobe that played at this age in the NBA. In this case I will use Michael Jordan’s rate of decline in scoring production starting when he was at age 33 where the following 2 seasons his scoring output dropped about 3 percent each season. Jordon retired with the Chicago Bulls at age 35 but we would expect for the trend of a 3% drop off each season to continue had he kept playing consecutively. Jordon did return to play for the Wizard at age 38 and played until he was an astonishing 40 years old. When making any comparison to Kobe, you have to use Jordan as measuring stick. I will use the same 3 percentage per year scoring decline in MJ’s career for this Kobe scoring projection.

Next: Wilt, MJ, the Mailman and The Captain

Assuming that Kobe plays all 82 games going forward and the NBA season is not shortened in 2011-2012 due to a lock out, Kobe will pass Wilt Chamberlain’s 31,410 point total in the 2012-2013 season when Kobe would be 34 years old.

At 35 years old, Kobe will pass up MJ’s 32,292 point total in the 2013-2014 season. If Kobe is still gathering accolades and achievements to match or exceed MJ’s career in order to be considered as the best of all time, this could be the clinching mark.

Kobe will have to play another 2 season in order to top Karl Malone for #2 on the list at 36,928. Kobe will be 37 in this 2015-16 NBA season.

In what would be the crowning moment in Kobe’s career, at age 38, he would break Kareem’s all time NBA scoring record of 38,387 in the 2016-17 season. To really understand how incredible and yet far fetched this idea is, this is 6 full NBA seasons away from where we are today. It is attainable only if Kobe remains injury free and only experiences a 3 percent decline in production per year.

Breaking Kareems NBA scoring record is an improbable feat that ranks right up there with the other likely insurmountable records as Joe Dimaggios 56 game hitting streak and Cy Youngs 511 career wins.

For someone to even consider approaching this record, it will require incredible commitment to remaining in top physical shape.

Their game will have to be altered and tweaked each year in order to remain productive despite the natural decline in athletic ability.

This person will have to have a love for the game so big that they are still passionate after 15 to 20 years experiencing the same long NBA season grind.

All of the aforementioned seem to describe Kobe to a tee.

While actually attaining this record is completely unimaginable, Kobe has made a career of doing what many could not imagine. For him, it is definitely possible.