The 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year race has taken several unexpected turns, with Dalton Knecht of the Los Angeles Lakers emerging as a strong contender and moving up the favorites list amidst a field of talented first-year players.
Jared McCain Injury
Initially, Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain was the odds-on favorite to claim the award. McCain’s impressive start to the season, averaging 15.3 points, 2.6 assists, and 2.4 rebounds over his first 23 games, had established him as the frontrunner, according to the best sportsbooks. However, McCain’s promising campaign came to an abrupt halt on December 14, 2024, when he suffered a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee during a game against the Indiana Pacers. This devastating injury, which requires surgery and will sideline McCain indefinitely, has completely removed him from the Rookie of the Year conversation.
Rookie Deck Reshuffled
With McCain’s unfortunate exit, the door has swung wide open for other rookies to stake their claim. Stephon Castle of the San Antonio Spurs has seized this opportunity, surging to the top of the odds board. Castle, the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, has been a revelation for the Spurs, showcasing his all-around game and leadership on the court. Over his first 25 games, Castle has averaged 11.7 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.6 rebounds per game, shooting 37.8% from the field and 27.4% from the three-point range. His ability to impact the game in multiple ways has impressed observers and bookmakers alike, with his odds now sitting at +125 to win the award.
Missi and Knecht
Hot on Castle’s heels is Yves Missi of the New Orleans Pelicans, who has seen his stock rise dramatically in recent weeks. Missi, the 21st overall pick, has become a force in the paint for the Pelicans. Through 27 games, he’s averaging 9.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting an efficient 55.6% from the field. Missi’s emergence as a reliable interior presence has propelled him to the second spot on the odds board at +225.
Dalton Knecht, the Lakers’ 17th overall pick, finds himself in third place with odds of +350 to win Rookie of the Year. Knecht has been a pleasant surprise for the Lakers, providing much-needed scoring punch off the bench. In his first 24 games, Knecht has averaged 11 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game, shooting 46.9% from the field and a solid 39.1% from beyond the arc. His ability to space the floor and contribute immediately to a contending team has caught the attention of both fans and oddsmakers.
Bronny Out of the Picture
The Rookie of the Year race took an interesting turn during the NBA Summer League. Bronny James, son of Lakers superstar LeBron James, garnered significant attention despite being selected 55th overall. Despite struggling in his first four summer league games, Bronny’s name recognition and potential led to an unexpected surge in betting interest. At one point, he attracted nearly one in four bets in the Rookie of the Year markets, with some sportsbooks even offering special bets solely on his performance. However, as the regular season has progressed, Bronny’s playing time in the G-League has tempered expectations, and he is no longer considered a serious contender for the award.
The Longshots
As the season unfolds, the Rookie of the Year race remains fluid. Zaccharie Risacher of the Atlanta Hawks, the first overall pick in the 2024 draft, sits fourth in the odds at +1100, while Zach Edey of the Memphis Grizzlies rounds out the top five at +1400. The unpredictable nature of rookie development and the long NBA season mean these standings could shift dramatically in the coming months.
Knecht’s Odds and Chances
Dalton Knecht’s +350 odds reflect both his solid play and the potential for increased responsibility as the season progresses. The Lakers’ faith in selecting him 17th overall appears to be paying off. If he can maintain or improve his efficiency while potentially taking on a more significant role, he could challenge Castle and Missi for the top spot.
As the race heats up, basketball fans and bettors will closely watch these talented rookies, eager to see who will separate themselves from the pack and claim the prestigious Rookie of the Year award. With injuries reshuffling the deck and unexpected stars emerging, the 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year race promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory.
