The Los Angeles Lakers enter the 2025-26 NBA season with stability and uncertainty. Stability comes from Luka Dončić, who signed a four-year extension that cemented him as the franchise cornerstone heading into his prime. Uncertainty surrounds the longtime face of the league, LeBron James, who begins his 22nd NBA season at age 40, under contract for one more year with Los Angeles. The pairing of Dončić and James creates the possibility of a championship run, but also raises questions about whether this will be James’s final campaign or one step toward extending his career alongside a superstar capable of lightening his load.
The Lakers’ balance between chasing the present and preparing for the future rests on James’s decision in 2026. NBA betting odds from sportsbook analysts lean toward James retiring after this season, though several franchises loom as potential destinations if he decides to continue playing. A closer look at these scenarios requires weighing James’s career arc and considering how Dončić’s arrival shifts the timeline for both James personally and the Lakers collectively.
Retirement Remains Likely
The most straightforward outcome is that James chooses retirement in 2026. At 40, he enters the season as the league’s oldest active player, set to turn 41 in December. NBA history shows just how rare it is for players to thrive at this age. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar played until 42, while Vince Carter made it to 43, though neither played at the workload or usage level James has sustained even in his late 30s. James averaged 25.0 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.3 assists in 2024-25, his 21st NBA season, remarkable production given he logged more than 38,000 career minutes entering the year.
The physical toll, however, is undeniable, and even with rigorous conditioning, James is navigating an age bracket nearly all professional basketball players avoid entirely. Despite the Lakers’ commitment to load management, the fact that the team is playing to win it all this season will make for a grueling season. Oddsmakers place retirement as the most likely scenario, not as an indictment of James’s abilities, but as recognition of the rarity of maintaining elite output beyond age 40.
Lakers Still in the Mix
Despite those long-term doubts, if he continues, Los Angeles remains a realistic option for James. He has already spent seven seasons with the franchise, delivering the Lakers their 17th championship in 2020. Heading into 2025-26, the Lakers will pair him with Dončić, who averaged 33.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 9.8 assists last season with the Dallas Mavericks before his blockbuster trade and subsequent extension with Los Angeles.
Dončić’s presence has significant implications for James’s longevity in the NBA. With Dončić serving as the offensive engine and handling most ball-dominant duties, James can scale back his workload, operating more efficiently as a secondary playmaker, transition finisher, and perimeter shooter. Such a setup could extend James’s career by reducing wear and maximizing bursts of productivity rather than sustaining nightly heavy minutes.
At the same time, Dončić’s takeover could also hasten James’s departure. By solidifying Dončić as the face of the franchise, the Lakers reduce the necessity of bringing James back at a premium salary in 2026. James may not want to transition to a more minor role in Los Angeles, which could lead him to explore new options or step away altogether. Basketball betting, including NBA betting, involves analyzing current and historical data. For now, oddsmakers give the Lakers the second-shortest odds of retaining him beyond this season, seeing continuity as possible but not assured.
A Return to Cleveland?
Cleveland remains firmly in play for sentimental and basketball reasons. James led the Cavaliers to their only NBA championship in 2016 and has already returned to the franchise once in his career. The Cavaliers enter this season with a young core led by Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland. If that group continues to emerge as a top contender in the Eastern Conference, reaching out to James in 2026 would be a logical step for a franchise eager to add championship-level experience for another title push. Oddsmakers list Cleveland with strong odds, recognizing the combination of history and competitive fit.
Miami Reunion Possibility
The Miami Heat, another former James team, also warrants consideration. James won two titles in Miami alongside Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh and played under the leadership of Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra. Miami remains competitive, reaching the NBA Finals in 2023 and the playoffs in 2024 and 2025 with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way. If the Heat remain contenders into 2026, they could again explore the James option, particularly if he prefers a defined role on a veteran squad positioned for another deep postseason run.
New York as an Alternative Destination
The New York Knicks also enter the odds discussion, reflecting a competitive trajectory and market appeal. The Knicks posted a 52-30 record last season and made a second-round playoff appearance, driven by Jalen Brunson’s scoring and leadership. They project to remain one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference in 2026. Signing James, even for one season, would reinforce their status as championship contenders. The Knicks also offer one of the league’s biggest stages, an element that might matter as James weighs a final season.
Brooklyn remains mentioned in similar terms, more for financial flexibility and potential cap space than legacy ties. The Nets have built with younger talent, but their ability to offer lucrative deals could draw interest if James views the move as a final short-term opportunity.
The Field
Other potential destinations will almost certainly emerge depending on how the 2025-26 season unfolds. Teams like Houston, San Antonio, or Golden State could theoretically pursue James should championship windows align. Much depends on how teams perform this season, injuries, and how James views competitiveness and his role moving forward.
The Impact of Dončić on the Decision
James’s calculus hinges on his appetite for continuing and how he fits next to Dončić moving forward. On one hand, Dončić gives James his most talented teammate since Anthony Davis’s peak in 2020. On the other hand, Dončić’s long-term presence as the franchise centerpiece allows the Lakers to pivot cleanly into a new era without extending James. This duality makes the 2025-26 season a natural pivot point.
The odds suggest retirement is the favorite, but a return to Los Angeles or one of James’s former teams remains firmly in play. Adding Dončić makes both outcomes more plausible—James could see his workload lessened enough to extend his career, or he could decide his transition into a supporting role is better served elsewhere.
James’s decision will shape his legacy and the Lakers’ trajectory for years to come, whether that future includes one of the NBA’s most enduring stars or moves forward entirely with Dončić at the helm.
