We are currently in the part of the NBA offseason where player movement has — mostly — ground to a halt. With that, it’s a perfect opportunity for people to project out what they believe will happen this upcoming season, and no team has generated more takes than Luka Doncic and the new-look Los Angeles Lakers.
Everyone is curious, and mostly unsure, what the Lakers are going to be this season. Their new team around Doncic and Austin Reaves looks like it should be among the league’s elite offenses, but defense might be poor. They appear to be better than last season’s team in a lot ways, but worse in others. However, what nearly everyone agrees on is that Doncic himself will be spectacular. ESPN’s annual summer forecast has Doncic near the top of the MVP race once again:
Who will win NBA MVP?
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: 102 points
2. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets: 31 points
3. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 28 points
4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: 26 points
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami Heat: eight pointsDoncic’s prospects depend on how quickly the new-look Lakers come together. He’s accelerated that process by hosting most of the Lakers this summer in his native Slovenia.
Finishing third behind Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama wouldn’t be a shocking outcome. Both players receive far more media love than Doncic and certainly have the talent and situations available to them to win the league’s most prestigious regular season award.
The forecast does give Doncic some extra love, though, projected him to average the most points per game for the second season in a row:
Bonus! Who will be the scoring champion this season?
1. Luka Doncic, Los Angeles Lakers: 11 votes
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder: five votes
3. Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves: three votes
4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs: one voteWinner of two of the past three NBA scoring titles, our panel has Doncic as the overwhelming favorite to become the first player with back-to-back seasons of scoring supremacy since Joel Embiid (2021-22, 2022-23).
The Lakers star averaged 33.48 points a season ago, accounting for the second-best mark of his career and the third time he’s averaged north of 32 points in eight years in the league. With LeBron James and his 15.3 field goal attempts per game from a season ago relocating to Philadelphia, it will be interesting to see how many of those scoring opportunities Doncic will absorb and how high his average can go — Harden (36.1 in 2018-19), Kobe Bryant (35.40 in 2005-06) and Michael Jordan (37.09 in 1986-87) are the only players to average more than 35 points in a season in the past 60 years. Before his season-ending hamstring injury, Doncic was nearing peak form in March, averaging 37.5 points on 49/39/79 shooting splits over 16 games.
It’s not a bad prediction to make. Since Doncic’s rookie season — 2018-19 — only Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged more total points per game. If you take out Doncic’s rookie season and start the range at 2019-20, Doncic is the only player in the league to average more than 30 points per game.
The Lakers may have many different players, but Doncic’s regular season achievements — or lack thereof — might look very similar to last season, when he won the scoring title but finished fourth in MVP voting.
ESPN projects Lakers to be eight games worse than last season
The summer forecast was not kind to the Lakers as a whole, as they had them just barely squeaking into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed with 45 wins, eight fewer than the 53 they had last season.
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