There are plenty of opinions as to how the new-look Los Angeles Lakers will perform this season. They replaced six key rotation players from last season — LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes and Luke Kennard — with Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton, Matisse Thybulle, Ziaire Williams and Kevon Looney.
Because of all that change, projecting them is both very difficult and something many people want to do. The Lakers were regular features in ESPN’s Summer Forecast, where they look to project the upcoming season in a variety of categories. They don’t appear to be very high on the Lakers, though, as they voted them as the most likely team to disappoint in 2026-27:
Disappointing teams: Which team will take a tumble this season?
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 32 points
2. Detroit Pistons: 27 points
3. Golden State Warriors: 26 points
4. Miami Heat: 22 points
5. Boston Celtics: 17 pointsThere’s no more potent formula for disappointment in the NBA than the weight of expectations combined with an organizational standard for perennial championship contention.
That’s the scenario facing the Lakers and Heat next season, with L.A. building out its team to fit specifically around 27-year-old superstar Luka Doncic and Miami landing its next face of the franchise: Giannis Antetokounmpo. If L.A. can’t build on its last two 50-win seasons, the team’s handling of LeBron James’ exit will be called into question all over again. And if the Heat can’t make a playoff run, the three first-round picks and young talent like Kel’el Ware included in the deal with the Milwaukee Bucks will be reexamined.
It’s very rare that the Lakers make any sort of move that is received positively by anyone. It almost feels reflexive to criticize Lakers’ moves, even if they end up working out. For example, the Lakers were voted second in most likely to have team turmoil, fifth in Western Conference standings and over half of voters said James would not win a title with L.A. in the 2019-20 edition of the summer forecast. They proceeded to win the title that very season.
So this is an unsurprising result for the Lakers in this category. However, the Lakers are one of the hardest teams to project for multiple reasons, and it might be best to wait until games start to see what this team is actually capable of.
ESPN projects Lakers to be worse than last season
The summer forecast did not feel great about the Lakers’ outlook this season. They have the Lakers finishing in sixth in the Western Conference with 45 wins, despite Luka Doncic never posting fewer than 50 wins as a Laker up to this point.
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