How Player NBA Rotations Influence Odds and Wagers
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Studies have found that the depth of player rotation in the NBA can have significant positive effects on the outcomes of the teams that rotate. This rotation also has a huge influence on in-play betting patterns as the game unfolds at fully licensed and regulated online bookmakers.

The Los Angeles Lakers lost three straight games to open the season. Slight changes were made to the starting lineup, and they ended up winning their next game, but it wasn’t a league game.

Here is a closer look at the Lakers’ most common lineup and some of the most important things you should consider before placing bets on upcoming matches.

Recent Performances

Look at some of the Los Angeles Lakers’ most recent results. They have lost all three of the most recent NBA league matches, including the following results:

  • Orlando Magic (120) vs. Lakers (101) – lost
  • Miami Heat (108) vs. Lakers (107) – lost
  • Houston Rockets (128) vs. Lakers (94) – lost

Their latest win on November 11th came against the Phoenix Suns, who they beat 122-119 in a group stage match of the NBA in-season tournament.

They play the Grizzlies on November 15th and are also in the NBA in-season tournament group stage before facing the Sacramento Kings in the league on November 16th and the Portland Trail Blazers on November 18th.

Most Common Rotation

The Lakers players who have been in the starting lineups more than any others so far are Point Guard D’Angelo Russell (#11), Small Guard Austin Reeves (#15), Small Forward Cam Reddish (#5), Power Forward LeBron James (#23), and Centre Anthony Davis (#3).

Heading into the 2023/24 NBA regular season, the projected lineup was slightly different, with LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russel, Anthony Davis, and Rui Hachimura. Last season, the most common lineup was LeBron James, Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russel, Anthony Davis, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

The Lakers don’t have as much depth in their bench, and the older, more experienced players are still the ones they rely on to perform well and help get the results. However, they can’t keep these aging players for too many more seasons and must focus on their bench depth.

With this in mind, the lack of depth and rotation significantly impacts their NBA betting odds at fully licensed and regulated online sports betting sites like the official 10bet website. They are nowhere near being the favorites to win the NBA championship outright this season.

How Player Rotations Impact the Odds

Before the new season got underway, the Los Angeles Lakers were priced in the American/moneyline odds format at +1,300 to win the NBA Championship outright, meaning they had a 7.10% implied probability rate (IPR) of actually going on to win the 2023/24 NBA Championship outright.

In the UK fractional odds format, this works out to 13/1; in decimal odds, it’s 14.00. After a few consecutive losses and several poor rotations being made, their odds have, as you would expect, gotten worse for the Lakers. However, things aren’t as bad as you might have thought.

At the time of writing, the LA Lakers are still around the seventh odds-on favorite team to win the NBA Championship 2023/24 outright, behind the LA Clippers, the Golden State Warriors, the Phoenix Suns, the Denver Nuggets, the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Boston Celtics.

Let’s take a closer look at the latest odds for which teams stand the best chance at winning the championship outright:

  • Boston Celtics: the odds-on favorite team to win the NBA Championship outright with a 22.20% IPR (implied probability rate). In the American/moneyline odds format, they are priced at +350, which is the same as 7/2 (fractional odds) or 4.50 (decimal odds)
  • Milwaukee Bucks: the second odds-on favorite team to win the NBA Championship outright with a 20.00% IPR (implied probability rate). In the American/moneyline odds format, they are priced at +400, which is the same as 4/1 (fractional odds) or 5.00 (decimal odds)

You then have the Denver Nuggets with an 18.20% IPR, which is +450 (American/moneyline), 9/2 (fractional), or 5.50 (decimal); the Phoenix Suns with a 12.50% IPR, or +700, 7/1 and 7.00), and both the Golden State Warriors and the LA Clippers with only a 6.7% IPR, or +1,400, 14/1, and 15.00.

Fewer people are betting on the LA Lakers to win the championship or even to win individual matches because there is very little player rotation and, as mentioned, a lack of depth in the squad.

At the start of the season, it appeared the Lakers had relatively good depth, but it hasn’t panned out this way for them. One of the reasons for their bad form so far this season can be linked to injury, but a lot can also be put down to individual mistakes and poor performances.

Some players haven’t impacted the game as much as they did last season when they were rotated. The injuries keep on coming – Jarred Vanderbilt (out – heel), Gabe Vincent (out – knee), Jaxson Hayes (doubtful – ankle), Anthony Davis (doubtful (hip), and Jalen Hood-Schifino (out – patella).

To place more strategic bets, you should always stay up to date with the latest team news and gossip, carefully examine the odds before betting, and remember to only place wagers at licensed and regulated iGaming sites with competitive odds like the world-renowned 10bet online bookmaker.

Avoid unlicensed sports betting sites at all costs, and always remember to gamble responsibly if you place a wager on the NBA or any other sporting events.

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