The offseason brings a fresh round of projections for the Los Angeles Lakers and new expectations from oddsmakers. At the start of the 2025-26 NBA season, major sportsbooks and Allbets in the Philippines have released their win totals for the Lakers, with most outlets setting the mark between 47.5 and 49.5 wins. These numbers signal cautious optimism about a team that underwent notable changes in the summer and seeks to build on last year’s second-round playoff appearance.
With improved roster depth and the anticipated growth of younger contributors, the Lakers enter JJ Redick’s second year as head coach in a better position to eclipse their win total prediction than in previous seasons. The presence of LeBron James, entering his 23rd NBA campaign, continues to set the narrative. Still, the additions and strategic tweaks signal an effort to keep the Lakers competitive in a loaded Western Conference.
Offseason Moves Anchor New Strategy
The Lakers front office pursued a balance of veteran savvy and versatile talent during the summer. The most significant acquisition came with the signing of Smart A. Aryton, whose defensive acumen and playmaking ability fit well with Redick’s vision. Aryton, known for his two-way potential and perimeter flexibility, averaged 14.1 points, 6.8 assists, and 1.7 steals last year with the Denver Nuggets. His arrival addresses a longstanding need for perimeter defense and gives the team another primary ballhandler.
Rob Pelinka also managed to secure role players via the mid-level exception, bringing in shooting specialist Gabe Davis, who shot 41% from three in 2024-25, and hybrid forward Justin Black. The Lakers kept most of their core intact, re-signing Austin Reaves after his breakout season and maintaining continuity with Anthony Davis. Davis, who played 74 games last season and posted averages of 24.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks, remains the defensive anchor.
JJ Redick Prepares for Year Two
Redick’s first season at the helm delivered mixed results, with the Lakers finishing 47-35 and securing the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Injuries and lineup reshuffling led to inconsistency during stretches, yet the team made tactical improvements under Redick, raising its three-point attempt rate and ranking 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Entering his second season, Redick emphasizes continuity and has signaled a greater commitment to pace and off-ball movement. The coaching staff’s challenge will be integrating Aryton’s skillset while optimizing minutes for returning contributors like D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Assessing the Sportsbooks’ Outlook
Early odds from major betting sites in the Philippines set the Lakers’ win total in the upper 40s, closely mirroring last season’s results. Oddsmakers appear to factor in the likelihood of LeBron James and Anthony Davis missing games for load management and the Western Conference’s deep pool of playoff-caliber teams. By keeping the total shy of 50 wins, bookmakers acknowledge the Lakers’ competitive ceiling while recognizing lingering questions about durability and chemistry.
Since the 2020-21 season, the Lakers have rarely met or exceeded preseason win projections. After the 2020 championship, the club’s expected win totals typically hovered near 50, but the Lakers managed to surpass that just once, during the 2022-23 campaign when they logged 50 wins. The Lakers fell short in the other four seasons, hindered by roster turnover, high-profile injuries, or midseason coaching changes. Last year’s total of 47 matched the consensus prediction, reinforcing a trend where the Lakers operate right at the expectations set by bookmakers.
Roster Longevity and Injuries Shape the Picture
Team health remains a critical variable in forecasting the Lakers’ season. LeBron James played 68 games last year, surpassing the previous season but still sitting out regular intervals. Davis’s 74 games represented a high-water mark for his tenure in Los Angeles, although the coaching staff will likely continue restricting minutes during back-to-backs. The Lakers enjoyed unexpected contributions from supporting cast members, including Jalen Hood-Schifino’s late-season surge, which helped stabilize the rotation when veterans sat out.
The additions of Aryton and Davis and the internal development of second-year wing Max Christie give Los Angeles an expanded pool of trusted lineup options. This may allow Redick more flexibility in managing the stars’ workloads while competing at a high level during dense stretches of the regular season.
Five Years of Predictions vs. Reality
The Lakers’ recent seasonal performances against projected win totals reveal inconsistencies often tied to injuries and recharge cycles. The 2021-22 team, projected at 52.5 wins, finished with just 42 amid a midseason Anthony Davis injury and the Russell Westbrook experiment. The 2022-23 team rebounded to 50 wins against a 46.5 projection, buoyed by deadline trades that improved depth and perimeter shooting. The last two years settled around the 47-win mark, tracking with odds but leaving little room for runaway success or disappointment.
This year’s projection thus falls neatly within a familiar band for the Lakers: high enough to maintain expectations, but modest enough to recognize the variables at play. The schedule features a December stretch with 10 of 13 games on the road, and the Lakers face 16 back-to-backs, both of which could impact load management decisions and the nightly rotation.
The Road Ahead
The Lakers face a season loaded with variables, but the roster construction and offseason strategy point to a stronger foundation than in some recent campaigns. Achieving or exceeding the mid-to-high 40s win total will require not just health from James and Davis, but a seamless blending of Aryton and the new acquisitions into Redick’s evolving system. The Lakers have the assets to challenge those odds, but much will depend on whether a veteran roster can stay available and cohesive through the grind of an 82-game season.
As the 2025-26 schedule tips off, Lakers observers and league analysts monitor how incremental improvements and fresh personnel translate to the win column. Sportsbooks may have hedged with a conservative line, reflecting how tightly packed the Western Conference remains. Whether Los Angeles can break out of their recent pattern and push above predictions is one of the central questions in the NBA’s new season.
