The 2025 Emirates NBA Cup is heating up, and oddsmakers see a clear top tier forming. According to Vegasino, the Oklahoma City Thunder are odds-on favorites to win the NBA Cup at around even money, with the Los Angeles Lakers sitting firmly in the next tier of contenders in the +500 to +600 range. Those prices put the Lakers ahead of most of the field and signal fundamental belief in their chances to make another deep run in the league’s in-season event.
Behind Oklahoma City and Los Angeles, Orlando, New York, Denver, and Toronto are clustered in the next band, generally between +600 and +1200 at Vegasino. That structure reflects a market that expects a relatively small group of teams to contend for the neutral-site games in Las Vegas, while leaving room for an emerging group to break through if form or health tilt in their favor—for the Lakers, sitting alone below 10-to-1 shows that the betting market views them as one of the few teams with both the star power and depth to survive the format.
History of the NBA Cup
The NBA Cup is a relatively new addition to the calendar, but it has quickly established its identity. The league launched the in-season tournament in 2023 as a way to add competitive stakes to the early part of the regular season and to create a second trophy alongside the Larry O’Brien. The first two editions demonstrated how a short-format event can favor teams that peak early, execute effectively in one-off settings, and thrive in the spotlight of Las Vegas.
From the start, the Cup has blended regular-season structure with tournament urgency. Games in group play count toward the regular-season standings while also determining advancement, which forces coaches to balance minutes, rotations, and tactical choices with both long-term and short-term goals. The money at stake has also mattered: players on the winning team earn a significant bonus, adding another layer of motivation for veterans and younger players alike.
How the Tournament Works
The field consists of 30 teams, divided into six groups of five, with three groups in each conference. Draws are based on the previous season’s records, with pots designed to distribute top, middle, and bottom teams across the groups. Each team plays four Cup group games, two at home and two on the road, on designated “Cup nights” that are baked into the regular-season schedule.
Group winners advance, along with two wild cards, one from each conference, based on group records, followed by point differential and other tiebreakers. That structure makes margin of victory relevant, and point differential has already become a talking point each year when teams push late in decided games to strengthen their position. Once the field is trimmed to eight, the tournament shifts into a single-elimination bracket, with quarterfinals held in home arenas and the semifinals and final in Las Vegas, giving the event a neutral-site, showcase feel.
The Stakes
The NBA Cup does not replace the championship, but it offers its own set of rewards and recognition. Along with player bonuses that can reach more than half a million dollars per player for the winners, teams gain national exposure, high-pressure reps for young cores, and a chance to test playoff-style strategies before spring. For veterans, it is an opportunity to add a unique line to their résumé. For front offices, it provides another benchmark for evaluating roster construction under postseason-like conditions.
There is also a growing component of perception. Winning or making a run in the Cup can shift the narrative around a team’s ceiling, especially for franchises trying to convince stars, role players, or future free agents that they are serious about competing. In a league where perception influences recruitment, media coverage, and even officiating expectations, a strong Cup performance holds value beyond the immediate payout.
Lakers’ Tournament Position
That context explains why the Lakers’ current pricing at Vegasino matters. With odds in the +500 to +600 range, oddsmakers view them as the most realistic challenger to the Thunder and a clear step ahead of most of the East-based contenders. It reflects confidence in their ability to navigate group play, secure a seeding position, and handle the pressure of single-elimination tournaments. It also suggests that bettors have already backed Los Angeles enough to move their number shorter than other popular franchises.
The Lakers’ roster has shifted since their 2023 championship team, but their identity remains built around high-end star talent, size, and half-court offense, complemented by wings who can defend and space the floor. The front office has focused on adding more two-way players to reduce the defensive drop-off when the stars rest and to better match up with versatile units from Oklahoma City, Orlando, and New York. Under JJ Redick, the team has leaned further into pace, early offense threes, and more modern spacing principles, which better translate into quick-hitting tournament environments.
Coaching and Style Under JJ Redick
Redick’s presence on the sideline is one of the significant variables baked into the Lakers’ price. His approach emphasizes read-and-react spacing, heavy pick-and-roll usage, and targeted off-ball actions to free shooters. That style can be difficult to scout in short windows, which is particularly important when matchups are set only days before knockout games. It also tends to keep role players involved, an essential factor when rotations can tighten but bench pieces still swing single-elimination outcomes.
Defensively, the Lakers have stressed switching schemes and more flexible coverages to avoid the kind of mismatches that cost possessions late in the shot clock. In a Cup environment, one or two late-game stops can decide a team’s entire run, and the staff has treated Cup nights almost like mini-playoff dates in terms of game-planning intensity. That focus is part of why markets have pushed Los Angeles into that sub-10-to-1 range.
Key Contenders around the Lakers
The rest of the market around the Lakers paints a picture of the broader landscape. Orlando and New York profile as deep, defensively sound teams that can grind their way through group play and have enough shot creation to survive late-game possessions in a neutral arena. Denver, even if priced slightly longer at Vegasino than Oklahoma City and Los Angeles, brings continuity, elite offensive execution, and star-level pick-and-roll play that always translates in tournament formats.
Toronto, Miami, and San Antonio represent the dangerous second wave, typically priced in the +1200 to +2000 corridor. Those teams rely more on schematic edges, discipline, and emerging stars rather than a fully established superstar duo. They may not carry the same public handle as the Thunder or Lakers, but their style and coaching give them a puncher’s chance if the bracket breaks right. For Los Angeles, those are the types of opponents most likely to appear in a quarterfinal or semifinal setting.
