With the regular season entering its final stretch, the NBA MVP race has largely shifted from a two-man debate into a clear favorite-versus-chasers scenario. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has separated from the pack, while Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic remains in the conversation, but no longer sits on equal footing when you fetch the best odds early for the NBA finals.
Voters still tend to reward a blend of elite production, team success, and narrative momentum, and Gilgeous-Alexander checks those boxes as the leader of the league’s top team. Jokic remains a statistical force, but the current market reflects that the race has moved decisively in SGA’s direction.
The MVP Odds
As of late March, sportsbooks have Gilgeous-Alexander as the overwhelming MVP favorite, with one market listing him at -1500 and another at -1100; both imply he has a commanding lead in the race. Jokic, meanwhile, sits well behind him at +2500 to +4000 depending on the book, while Luka Dončić has become the main secondary challenger at roughly +1000 to +3500.
For Gilgeous-Alexander, the betting case remains straightforward. He is the engine of a Thunder team that has separated itself atop the West, and his statistical profile remains elite, with ESPN listing him at 31.5 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Oklahoma City’s 56-15 record on March 23 strengthens the “best player on the best team” argument that often decides close MVP races.
Jokic’s case is still compelling because he remains one of the most complete offensive players in the league. ESPN lists him at 27.8 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game, and he has continued to post dominant all-around numbers for Denver. But the Nuggets were 44-28 on March 23 and sitting behind Oklahoma City in the Western Conference race, which weakens the team-success portion of his MVP argument.
What Could Decide It
The biggest factor is now whether Gilgeous-Alexander can simply avoid collapse over the final weeks. If he stays healthy and Oklahoma City keeps winning, the race may already be close to over, as the gap in both records and odds is substantial.
Availability matters too, especially with the NBA’s 65-game rule for award eligibility, which effectively means a player can miss no more than 17 games and still qualify for postseason honors. That rule has made durability a major part of the MVP conversation, adding pressure on stars who have already missed time.
The final variable is whether Jokic or another contender can stage a late surge. Jokic still has the kind of nightly production that can shift perception quickly, but the current market suggests he would need both a strong closing run and help from the standings to catch SGA. Luka Dončić’s rise in the odds also shows that the field behind the top two is still alive enough to matter if the final month breaks the right way.
