The start of the NBA season is nearly here, with opening night set for October 21st. Training camps are underway, rosters are taking final shape, and teams across the league are preparing for a season filled with high expectations and intense competition. While the top-tier contenders like Oklahoma, New York, and Milwaukee enter the year with short odds, several long-shot teams present intriguing cases as value plays to make noise in the championship race.
In the past few seasons, injuries, blockbuster trades, and rapid development of young stars have altered the playoff picture in ways few expected. This year is no different, and a handful of teams on the outside looking in could realistically fight their way to the Finals. With the Los Angeles Lakers among that pack, let’s look deeper at the strongest long-shot contenders heading into the 2025-26 campaign.
Los Angeles Lakers (+1400)
The Lakers come into the season with the seventh-best odds to win the NBA Finals at +1400, and this may be one of the most justified online sports betting long-shot selections in years if you can get that number or better. After landing Luka Dončić in a blockbuster trade last February, Los Angeles instantly reshaped its championship window. Yet while the back half of last season was uneven due to the sudden roster shake-up and JJ Redick’s adjustment as a rookie head coach, the team’s potential is undeniable.
In games where LeBron James and Luka Dončić shared the floor, the Lakers went 15-8, showing flashes of elite offensive balance. With a whole training camp this year, the expectation is that the two stars will have far better chemistry. James, who averaged 25.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 8.2 assists last season, continues to thwart age-related decline. At the same time, Dončić adds his playmaking brilliance after averaging 33.8 points and 9.7 assists between Dallas and Los Angeles before the trade.
The concern for Los Angeles is depth and defense, particularly on the perimeter. Reports have suggested the Lakers are exploring a deal for Andrew Wiggins to bolster that area. It would provide a versatile forward who can score in the mid-teens while guarding multiple positions if completed. With the additions of Deandre Ayton and Marcus Smart, the Lakers could transform from an uncertain project into a top contender if the roster balances the right way.
Golden State Warriors (+1800)
At +1800, Golden State remains one of the most interesting teams in the league—a dynasty refusing to fade away. Last year’s midseason trade for Jimmy Butler gave the Warriors new life, as their record when Butler and Steph Curry played together was an impressive 22-5. Unfortunately, injuries derailed their postseason hopes and ended a season that, at times, looked like it might rekindle championship memories.
Heading into 2025-26, the questions remain familiar: Can Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green stay healthy? Curry, who averaged 28.2 points but only 52 games last season, insists he has recovered fully from the ankle issues that hampered him in the playoffs. Butler, now 36, adds defensive grit and a clutch scoring presence, but health and durability are significant variables.
Golden State’s supporting cast also needs to deliver. Jonathan Kuminga made strides last season, averaging 14.7 points, and the Warriors will need him to continue progressing to ease the load on the veterans. If everything clicks, they retain one of the highest playoff ceilings in the Western Conference, though the odds reflect the risks tied to their aging stars.
Dallas Mavericks (+3000)
The Mavericks were turned upside down after trading Luka Dončić to Los Angeles, and last year turned into a season of attrition. Anthony Davis, one of the most dominant two-way bigs in the game when healthy, missed significant time with an adductor strain and eye issues. Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in January, shutting him down for the year. That version of Dallas was never in a position to contend.
This season, the reset button has been pressed significantly. Dallas defied the odds in the draft lottery and landed the No. 1 pick, selecting Cooper Flagg, a versatile forward who dominated college basketball with his scoring and rebounding. Add to that the anticipated midseason return of Irving, and suddenly the Mavericks have the blueprint for a dangerous second-half surge.
The supporting cast looks steadier after extensions for P.J. Washington and the addition of D’Angelo Russell. Klay Thompson, now in his second season in Dallas, still provides floor spacing after hitting nearly 39 percent from three last year. If Davis can return to his 2023-24 form, when he played 76 games and averaged 24 points and 12 rebounds, Dallas has an outside shot at a deep playoff push. At +3000, they are one of the more intriguing bets on the board.
Sacramento Kings (+4000)
Sacramento enters the year at +4000 with arguably more upside than the number suggests. The Kings finished with a 46-36 record last season, but their offense remained near the league’s top, ranking sixth in points per game at 118.2. De’Aaron Fox continues to perform at an All-NBA level, posting 26.5 points and 6.7 assists last year. In comparison, Domantas Sabonis once again anchored the frontcourt with 19.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, earning another All-Star nod.
Their primary issue has been perimeter defense and depth. This offseason’s signing of veteran guard Derrick White, who brings championship experience and defensive versatility, should help stabilize that area. Sacramento also added bench scoring with Malik Monk’s extension, keeping continuity in place for a team that already ranks among the most explosive offensively.
If the Kings improve defensively while maintaining their high-efficiency offense, they could emerge from the Western Conference mix as a true dark horse contender.
New Orleans Pelicans (+5000)
At +5000, the Pelicans remain a long shot, but their ceiling is higher than most realize if health cooperates. The perennial question is whether Zion Williamson can stay on the court. When he played, the Pelicans were markedly better; with Williamson in the lineup last season, New Orleans posted a 27-13 record. He averaged 24.2 points and 6.8 rebounds across 52 games but faced long stretches on the sidelines again.
The Pelicans’ foundation remains strong with Brandon Ingram, who averaged 22.7 points, and CJ McCollum, who provides steadiness as a secondary scorer. The development of Herb Jones and Trey Murphy gives New Orleans one of the most versatile young wing combinations in the league. Jonas Valanciunas remains reliable on the boards, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game.
The margin for error is thin, but if Williamson completes a full season and the Pelicans’ younger players build on their growth, they could have a chance to disrupt the Western Conference hierarchy.
Final Thoughts
Preseason odds only provide one part of the story. The Lakers, Warriors, Mavericks, Kings, and Pelicans all carry risk, whether due to injuries, roster balance, or the rugged Western Conference landscape. Yet the talent level on these teams makes them legitimate long-shot threats to consider. Los Angeles is a contender with a more defined ceiling than most “long shots.” If health stays on their side and roster adjustments are made, the Lakers could shift from a futures sleeper pick into a real championship threat by spring.
