The 2025-26 NBA season tips off in less than two weeks, and the Los Angeles Lakers are once again getting an Opening Night national TV game. They’ll play the Golden State Warriors at 7 p.m. PT on NBC and Peacock, the first season opener with Luka Doncic as a member of the Lakers.
The Lakers are one of the most interesting teams in the league to try and project this season. This was made even more difficult after it was announced that LeBron James would be missing some time due to sciatica. Las Vegas set the Lakers over/under at 48.5 wins, putting them in the second tier of teams in the Western Conference.
ESPN, however, is slightly lower on the purple and gold. In their stat model projections, they have the Lakers finishing in sixth in the West with a record of 46-36, via< a href="https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/46521096/nba-2025-2026-season-win-projections-all-30-teams" target="_blank">ESPN’s Kevin Pelton:
6. Los Angeles Lakers
Projected wins: 45.8
ESPN BET over/under total: 48.5Why they project to be worse than their total: This is an annual occurrence for the Lakers, whose line benefits from their popularity, particularly in Las Vegas. On average, the Lakers have finished 5.7 wins below their total since 2013-14, the biggest gap for any team. There certainly is reason to believe the Lakers could hit the mark if Luka Doncic plays at an MVP level in his first full season with the team. But the Lakers are far and away the league’s top-heaviest team, with just four players projected better than league average. The other teams with fewer than five — the Nets, Jazz and Wizards — are all pegged for the lottery.
Depth was certainly an issue for the Lakers last season, evidenced by the playoff game in which they played one five-man lineup for an entire second half. However, the team did try to address that depth in the offseason. Dorian Finney-Smith and Jordan Goodwin were there major losses, while they added Deandre Ayton, Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart.
Combine those additions with a finally healthy Jarred Vanderbilt, and the Lakers are inarguably deeper than last season. However, ESPN’s model still doesn’t trust that, and believe a lack of depth will keep them below their Vegas-projected win total.
Lakers finish sixth; full ESPN West standings projection
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 59-23
2. Golden State Warriors: 56-26
3. Denver Nuggets: 52-30
4. LA Clippers: 50-32
5. Houston Rockets: 47-35
6. Los Angeles Lakers: 46-36
7. Memphis Grizzlies: 45-37
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: 44-38
9. Dallas Mavericks: 44-38
10. Sacramento Kings: 43-39
11. San Antonio Spurs: 40-42
12. Portland Trail Blazers: 36-46
13. Phoenix Suns: 35-47
14. New Orleans Pelicans: 33-49
15. Utah Jazz: 20-62
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