The Los Angeles Lakers, one of the NBA’s most storied franchises, find themselves at a crossroads heading into the 2025-26 season. After a disappointing first-round playoff exit, the team is again recalibrating its roster and strategy in pursuit of an 18th championship. Expectations remain sky-high with superstars Luka Dončić and LeBron James at the helm, but there are significant hurdles between the Lakers and another NBA title.
Current Odds: Where Do the Lakers Stand?
As of early June 2025, the Lakers are considered a long shot for the 2026 NBA Championship, with odds according to the sportsbook at Casino Vegasino placing them behind several other contenders in both the Western and Eastern Conferences. These odds reflect cautious optimism: the Lakers have the star power to make a run, but their flaws and the depth of the Western Conference make them a risky bet.
Skepticism about the Lakers’ title chances centers on their lack of elite size, aging stars, and defensive shortcomings. Despite the franchise’s enduring popularity, the consensus is that the Lakers are not among the league’s elite, and their odds are as much a reflection of public sentiment as on-court potential.
The 2020 Championship Blueprint: A Stark Contrast
It’s instructive to look back at their 2020 championship team to understand the Lakers’ current predicament. That squad, led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis, was built on dominant defense, size, and a cohesive supporting cast. The 2020 Lakers finished the regular season as the Western Conference’s top seed and stormed through the playoffs with a 16-5 record, ultimately defeating the Miami Heat in six games.
LeBron James was named Finals MVP, averaging 29.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game on 59% shooting during the Finals. Anthony Davis was a force on both ends, averaging 27.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game in the playoffs. The supporting cast—Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, and Alex Caruso—provided defense, shooting, and veteran savvy.
That team’s identity was clear: defense first, with elite rim protection and versatile perimeter defenders. They overwhelmed opponents with size, rebounding, and disciplined rotations, while LeBron and Davis carried the offensive load.
The 2025 Lakers: Star Power, But Glaring Holes
Fast forward to 2025, and the Lakers’ roster construction has shifted dramatically. The blockbuster acquisition of Luka Dončić has given the Lakers one of the league’s most potent offensive duos in Dončić and James. Dončić averaged 28.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game during the regular season, while James contributed 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists. Austin Reaves emerged as a reliable third option, averaging 20.2 points and 5.8 assists per game.
However, the team’s weaknesses were exposed in the playoffs. The Lakers finished third in the Western Conference with a 50-32 record but were bounced in five games by the Minnesota Timberwolves, highlighting issues with depth, size, and defense. The lack of a reliable starting center and inconsistent bench production proved fatal. In the postseason, Dončić led the team with 30.8 points per game, but the supporting cast struggled to keep pace.
Unlike the 2020 squad, the 2025 Lakers lacked an elite rim protector and defensive anchor. Injuries and age also took a toll, particularly on James, who, while still productive, is entering his 23rd NBA season and can no longer be expected to carry the team for extended stretches.
What the Lakers Need to Address in the Offseason
The Lakers must address three critical areas in the offseason: size and rim protection, bench depth, and defensive versatility.
The most glaring need is at the center position. Jaxson Hayes and Mark Williams failed to provide the interior presence needed to compete with the West’s elite big men, and the Lakers’ inability to acquire a top-tier center at the trade deadline was seen as a turning point in their playoff fate. A top priority is developing a center who can finish in the pick-and-roll, protect the rim, and rebound. Several names have surfaced as potential trade targets, all of whom could address these needs.
Bench depth is another concern. Outside of brief flashes from Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura, the Lakers’ second unit was inconsistent. The team leaned heavily on its starters in the playoffs, which proved unsustainable. Adding reliable shooters and versatile wings who can defend multiple positions is essential.
Health and load management will also be crucial, especially for James and Dončić. The Lakers’ stars have dealt with injuries and heavy minutes, and the front office is expected to prioritize roster moves that allow for more rest and flexibility.
Finally, the Lakers’ coaching staff, led by JJ Redick in his second year, will need to show growth. Redick’s inexperience was evident in the playoffs, particularly with tight rotations and adjustments. The hiring of a new strength and conditioning coach and a renewed emphasis on player development—especially for young talents like Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura—will be key storylines.
Financial and Roster Constraints
Salary cap limitations complicate the Lakers’ ability to reshape the roster. With James holding a $52.6 million player option and Dončić eligible for a four-year, $229 million extension, the team will likely operate above the luxury tax threshold. This restricts their flexibility in free agency, making trades and using mid-level exceptions their primary tools for improvement.
Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Maxi Kleber’s expiring contracts and future draft picks are the main assets available for trades. The Lakers must be creative, balancing the need to contend now with the desire to maintain long-term flexibility, especially as Dončić’s extension decision looms.
Outlook: Can the Lakers Win It All in 2026?
The Lakers’ odds reflect both their potential and their pitfalls. Dončić and James have two of the league’s premier offensive talents. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura provide hope for internal growth. But without significant upgrades at center, improved bench depth, and a renewed commitment to defense, the Lakers’ path to the 2026 NBA Finals remains steep.
The Western Conference is as competitive as ever, with several teams on the rise. The Lakers’ window is open, but only just. To seize it, the front office must execute a near-flawless offseason requiring savvy moves, good health, and perhaps a bit of luck.
As the 2025-26 season approaches, the Lakers remain one of the league’s most intriguing teams. Their star power ensures they will never be counted out, but to recapture the magic of 2020, they must address their weaknesses head-on and rediscover the defensive identity that once made them champions.
