As the Oklahoma City Thunder enter the 2025 NBA Finals as massive favorites against the Indiana Pacers, Lakers fans can’t help but feel a sense of déjà vu. The Thunder’s -700 odds to win the championship according to Royal Reels Casino are not just the largest this decade—they match the same overwhelming favoritism the Los Angeles Lakers carried into the 2004 NBA Finals against the Detroit Pistons. This series ended in one of the most stunning upsets in NBA history.
The 2004 Lakers: An All-Star Juggernaut
The 2003-04 Lakers were a superteam by any measure. With Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant at their peak, and Hall of Famers Gary Payton and Karl Malone joining the quest for a fourth championship in five years, the Lakers were widely expected to steamroll their way to another title. Oddsmakers reflected this belief: the Lakers opened the series as overwhelming favorites, meaning a bettor had to risk a considerable amount to win a modest return if Los Angeles prevailed.
But the Pistons, a blue-collar team built on defense and chemistry, had other plans. Detroit’s stifling defense, led by Ben Wallace and Finals MVP Chauncey Billups, held the Lakers to just 68 points in the decisive Game 3 and dominated the series 4-1. The Pistons’ victory remains the biggest NBA Finals upset of the 21st century, a “five-game sweep” in which the Lakers’ star power was no match for Detroit’s collective will, and one that Bryant, nearly 14 years later took personal responsibility for, saying,
“The Pistons thing, that’s my fault. I didn’t get us prepared to run our automatics. I didn’t get Gary, I didn’t get Karl, I didn’t get the new guys on board enough to be able to execute properly. When we got to Detroit, they forced us to play our offense 94 feet. We weren’t ready and we couldn’t do it. Everything just capitulated from there. That still sits with me. We should’ve won that.”
2025 Thunder: The New Overwhelming Favorite
Fast forward to 2025, and the Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves in a strikingly similar position. The Thunder, led by league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and All-NBA defender Jalen Williams, are massive favorites to win their first NBA championship over the Pacers. Only a handful of teams in modern NBA history have entered the Finals with such lopsided odds: the 2000 and 2001 Lakers, the 2018 Warriors, and the 2004 Lakers. The Pacers, who beat the Eastern Conference top seed Cleveland Cavaliers and then the scrappy New York Knicks in six games, enter as heavy underdogs—almost identical to the Pistons’ odds in 2004. Oddsmakers and analysts expect a short series, with most betting markets favoring a Thunder win in five games or fewer.
Why the 2004 Finals Still Matter to Lakers Fans
For Lakers fans, the memory of 2004 is a reminder that no amount of star power or betting confidence guarantees a championship. Despite boasting four Hall of Famers, that team was undone by injuries (Malone’s knee), internal discord, and a Pistons squad that played with unity and purpose. The Lakers managed just one overtime win in the series, while Detroit’s defense suffocated everyone not named O’Neal or Bryant. The aftermath was seismic: the breakup of the Shaq-Kobe era, Payton and Malone’s departures, and a franchise forced to rebuild before its next era of glory.
Other Notable NBA Finals Upsets
The 2004 Pistons’ triumph isn’t the only time NBA history has delivered a shocking Finals result. Some of the most memorable upsets include:
- 2016 Cavaliers: Down 3-1 to the 73-win Warriors, LeBron James led Cleveland to three straight wins and the city’s first NBA title.
- 2011 Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs toppled the Heat’s “Big Three” in six games, defying most expectations.
- 1975 Warriors: Rick Barry’s Warriors swept the heavily favored Washington Bullets.
- 2019 Raptors: Kawhi Leonard led Toronto past an injury-ravaged Warriors squad for their first championship.
Each series serves as a reminder that the underdog can always rise to the occasion, no matter how daunting the odds.
Lessons for 2025: Can the Pacers Channel the 2004 Pistons?
The parallels between the 2004 Finals and this year’s Thunder-Pacers matchup are impossible to ignore. Both feature a team of destiny, loaded with young talent and defensive prowess, facing an opponent given little chance by the oddsmakers. The Thunder, like the 2004 Lakers, have blitzed through the playoffs and appear nearly invincible on paper.
But as Lakers fans know too well, games aren’t won on paper. The Pistons’ victory proved that defense, teamwork, and belief can topple even the most star-studded lineups. If the Pacers can channel that same spirit, they might author the next great NBA Finals upset—and remind everyone, especially in Los Angeles, that no favorite is ever truly safe.
