The Los Angeles Lakers enter the 2025-26 NBA season with a roster built around two of the league’s most electrifying stars: Luka Dončić and LeBron James. The pairing, forged in a blockbuster trade that sent Anthony Davis to Dallas, has ignited hope and skepticism among fans, analysts, and oddsmakers. As the Lakers look to recapture championship glory, their odds to win the 2026 NBA Championship reflect this new era’s promise and pitfalls.
Betting Odds: Lakers in the Bottom Half
Despite the star power of Dončić and James, the Lakers are not considered among the top contenders for the 2026 NBA title. According to the bookmakers at ToshiBet, Los Angeles sits at +1700 to win the championship, placing them in the bottom half of the league’s title hopefuls. This line is a marked improvement from pre-trade odds, which hovered around +4000, but still lags behind teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Denver Nuggets. The surge in odds following the acquisition of Dončić was driven as much by fan enthusiasm as by a belief in the team’s on-court viability.
Sportsbooks and professional bettors remain wary. Many analysts point to the team’s average performance and lack of mastery in any particular area. The Lakers’ odds are “falsely low,” buoyed by the franchise’s massive fanbase rather than a true reflection of championship potential.
Dončić-LeBron Core: Defensive Questions
Luka Dončić’s arrival in Los Angeles was met with excitement, and for good reason. The 26-year-old Slovenian guard is coming off another All-NBA season, averaging 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in the regular season, and elevating his game to 30.2 points per game in the playoffs. His offensive creativity and ability to control the tempo make him one of the most dangerous playmakers in the league.
LeBron James, meanwhile, continues to defy age and expectations. At 40, he remains a top-tier contributor, averaging 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists over 70 games in his 22nd NBA season. In the playoffs, he boosted his numbers to 25.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game while also providing 2.0 steals and 1.8 blocks per contest. James was again named an All-Star starter and earned All-NBA Second Team honors, underscoring his enduring impact.
However, the pairing is not without its challenges. Dončić and James are ball-dominant, and while their offensive synergy has shown flashes of brilliance, the adjustment period is ongoing. More pressing are the defensive concerns. Neither Dončić nor James is known for elite perimeter defense at this stage of their careers, and the departure of Anthony Davis left the Lakers without a steadfast defensive anchor in the paint. The team’s supporting cast, including Austin Reaves and Dorian Finney-Smith, has not provided enough defensive resistance to compensate.
Danny Green’s Critique: “Too Old, Too Weak on D”
Former Lakers guard and 2020 NBA champion Danny Green voiced what many analysts have been thinking: the Lakers’ superstar duo may be too old and too defensively limited to win a championship. On a recent podcast, Green said,
“I think they’re explosive offensively. I think they lack a lot defensively… I don’t know how many years [LeBron] has left… Next year, LeBron is going to be 41… He can still average 30, 20-something, but I don’t see them winning a championship with that formula right now”
Others around the league echo Green’s concerns. The Lakers’ first-round playoff exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves, in which they managed just one win, highlighted their inability to get stops when it mattered most. The lack of a traditional center and elite perimeter defenders has left the team vulnerable, especially in a Western Conference that continues to strengthen.
Team and Player Statistics: A Mixed Bag
The Lakers finished the 2024-25 regular season with a 50-32 record, good for third in the Western Conference and first in the Pacific Division. Their offense was potent, averaging 113.4 points per game on 47.9% shooting, with Dončić and James leading the way. Dončić’s Lakers tenure saw him post 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game in the regular season, while James contributed 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. In the playoffs, Dončić averaged 30.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists, while James added 25.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists.
Defensively, the numbers are more nuanced. While analysts expected the Lakers to struggle, advanced metrics painted a more optimistic picture after the trade. Since acquiring Dončić, the Lakers posted the best defensive efficiency in the NBA, with a 107.5 mark that trailed only the Thunder’s historically elite unit. Their net rating (+9.7) was third-best in the league, and their rebounding improved significantly, moving from 23rd to 16th in offensive rebound rate and from 18th to 12th in defensive rebound rate. These improvements suggest that, at least in the short term, the team has managed to mask some of its defensive deficiencies with a better scheme and effort.
LeBron’s Option Year and Age Factor
LeBron James enters the 2025-26 season in the final year of his current contract, with a player option worth $52.6 million. While he has not officially announced his decision, reports indicate he will likely opt in, keeping him with the Lakers for at least one more season. At 40 years old, James is the oldest active player in the NBA and will turn 41 during the upcoming campaign. His longevity is unprecedented, and he remains a major contributor, but questions about his ability to sustain elite two-way performance are unavoidable.
James’ durability and production continue to impress. He played 70 games last season, averaged over 24 points and eight assists, and was an All-Star starter for the 21st time. Yet, as Danny Green and others have noted, it is difficult for a team to win a championship when its best player is 40 years old, especially without a strong defensive infrastructure.
Luka Dončić’s Contract Status and Future
Dončić is entering the final year of his contract, earning $45.9 million for the 2025-26 season. He becomes eligible for an extension in August, and he and the Lakers are reportedly eager to reach a new deal. The most likely scenario is a three-year, $165 million extension, with a player option for the third year. While Dončić cannot sign a “supermax” extension due to trade rules, the Lakers intend to make him the cornerstone of their post-LeBron future.
Dončić’s impact since arriving in Los Angeles has been substantial. In 33 combined regular season and playoff games for the Lakers, he averaged 28.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, cementing his status as one of the league’s premier offensive engines. His ability to take over games and elevate teammates has given the Lakers a new identity, but his defensive limitations remain a concern, particularly in high-leverage playoff situations.
Roster Construction and the Path Forward
The Lakers’ supporting cast remains a work in progress. Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, and others have contributed, but the team lacks a true rim protector and elite perimeter defenders. The front office, led by Rob Pelinka, is reportedly exploring options to add a starting-caliber center and additional defensive specialists. Significant upgrades may be difficult with limited salary cap flexibility, but the Lakers are expected to seek ways to bolster the roster aggressively.
The Western Conference landscape is as competitive as ever, with the Thunder, Timberwolves, and other rising teams poised to challenge the Lakers’ new-look core. The Lakers’ path to contention will require continued offensive excellence from Dončić and James, meaningful improvements on the defensive end, and a stronger supporting cast.
Conclusion Withheld
The Los Angeles Lakers’ odds to win the 2026 NBA Championship reflect the complex reality of a team built around Luka Dončić and LeBron James. While the duo brings unmatched offensive firepower and star appeal, questions about age, defense, and roster depth persist. As the offseason unfolds, all eyes will be on the Lakers’ next moves, whether this high-profile experiment can deliver on its championship ambitions.
