As the NBA offseason approaches, the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves at a pivotal crossroads. After acquiring Luka Dončić in a blockbuster midseason trade, the franchise faces a critical decision: securing Dončić’s long-term future in Los Angeles. On August 2, 2025, Dončić becomes eligible for a massive contract extension, and the outcome of these negotiations will shape the Lakers’ trajectory for years to come.
Dončić’s Extension Eligibility and Options
Dončić is not a free agent this summer, but under NBA rules, he can sign a four-year, $229 million contract extension with the Lakers starting August 2. This extension would keep him in Los Angeles through the 2029-30 season, with an average annual salary of over $57 million. However, because Dončić was traded from Dallas and is no longer eligible for the “supermax” extension, he cannot sign the five-year, $345 million deal he might have received from the Mavericks.
There are a few contract structures Dončić could consider. A four-year, $229 million extension would provide immediate long-term security and make Dončić the face of the franchise in the post-LeBron James era. Alternatively, a three-year, $165 million extension with a player option—a “two-plus-one” deal—would allow Dončić to reach 10 years of NBA service by 2028, making him eligible for a five-year, $418 million contract starting then, a strategy that maximizes his career earnings. Dončić could also play out his current contract, opting out after the 2025-26 season to sign a five-year, $296 million deal with the Lakers, or a four-year, $219 million contract with another team.
Odds Impact of a Dončić Extension
The prospect of Luka Dončić signing a long-term extension with the Los Angeles Lakers has already had a seismic impact on betting odds across traditional and offshore sportsbooks. After the blockbuster trade that brought Dončić to Los Angeles, major U.S. sportsbooks slashed the Lakers’ NBA title odds from as high as +4500 to as low as +1100, making them one of the top favorites for the championship. This dramatic shift reflects the immense value oddsmakers place on Dončić’s presence, especially when paired with LeBron James, as bettors have flocked to back the Lakers in both futures and playoff markets. The anticipation of Dončić signing a long-term extension further solidifies the Lakers as a perennial contender, prompting sportsbooks to adjust odds to manage liability and reflect heightened betting interest.
Offshore sportsbooks, which often operate outside U.S. regulatory frameworks, also heavily factor Dončić’s long-term commitment into their odds, but with a key difference: they typically offer more competitive lines and higher payouts than state-licensed operators. This is due to lower overhead costs and fewer regulatory fees, allowing them to provide sharper odds and more attractive promotions. As a result, bettors seeking the best value for their money may find offshore odds on the Lakers even more favorable following Dončić’s extension. Offshore sportsbooks often offer better odds than state-licensed operators and give bettors more value (source: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/betting-sites/offshore-sportsbooks/). With Dončić’s expected long-term future in Los Angeles, traditional and offshore sportsbooks will continue monitoring and adjusting their markets. Still, savvy bettors may increasingly turn to offshore sites for the best returns on Lakers futures and props.
Likelihood of Dončić Signing Long-Term
The consensus among NBA insiders is that Dončić is fully committed to the Lakers and is widely expected to sign an extension, though the exact terms and timing remain uncertain. Reports indicate that Lakers management is prepared to give Dončić significant input into the structure of his next contract, underscoring their commitment to building around him.
While Dončić’s emotional connection to Dallas lingered after the trade, he has reportedly moved past the breakup and embraced his role in Los Angeles. The Lakers’ aggressive pursuit and willingness to hand Dončić “the keys to the kingdom” further increase the likelihood of a long-term partnership.
Impact of a Long-Term Dončić Deal
Locking in Dončić on a long-term extension would be transformative for the Lakers on multiple fronts.
- On-Court Impact: Dončić is a generational offensive talent, a perennial All-NBA selection, and one of the league’s top playmakers. His arrival has already shifted the team’s identity, and he is expected to become the franchise’s centerpiece as LeBron James nears retirement. Building around Dončić gives the Lakers a clear succession plan and keeps them relevant in the championship conversation for years.
- Roster and Salary Cap: A max extension for Dončić would consume a significant portion of the Lakers’ salary cap, limiting flexibility in free agency and trades. The front office must be creative in assembling a supporting cast, especially with limited draft assets and expiring contracts as their primary trade chips. Prioritizing a rim-protecting center and defensive upgrades will be crucial to maximizing Dončić’s strengths.
- Brand and Marketability: Dončić’s star power enhances the Lakers’ global profile, boosting ticket sales, merchandise, and international appeal. The Lakers have historically thrived by acquiring and retaining marquee names, and Dončić fits that tradition perfectly.
What If the Lakers Can’t Reach an Extension?
If Dončić declines to sign an extension this summer, the Lakers face significant risk. He is under contract for one more season with a player option for 2026-27, but could become an unrestricted free agent as soon as 2026. Allowing Dončić to approach free agency without a long-term deal would be a dangerous gamble, potentially leaving the Lakers empty-handed if he decides to leave.
In that scenario, the Lakers would likely be forced to consider a blockbuster trade to recoup assets rather than risk losing Dončić for nothing. Such a move would signal the end of the current championship window and could trigger a painful rebuild, especially if LeBron James also departs. Therefore, the franchise’s priority is securing Dončić’s commitment and building a roster that convinces him to stay.
